
WTF is going on?!
Transcript
I cannot believe what just happened.
Fable and Mythos both gone. The US
government citing national security
authorities has issued an export control
directive to suspend all access to Fable
5 and Mythos 5 by any foreign national
and I'm going to explain exactly what
that means. whether inside or outside
the United States, including foreign
national anthropic employees. The net
effect of this order is that we must
abruptly disable Fable 5 and Mythos 5
for all our customers to ensure
compliance. Access to all other cloud
models is not affected. We apologize for
this disruption to our customers. We
believe this is a misunderstanding and
are working to restore access as soon as
possible. And I'm going to get into the
full blog in a moment, but there's a few
things that I want to point out here.
First, what is a foreign national? It's
basically any non US citizen, which is
crazy because there are obviously a ton
of green card holders, just as an
example, in the United States that work
for these large tech companies,
including people like Andre Karpathy,
one of the greatest minds in artificial
intelligence who just about two weeks
ago joined Anthropic. And so, how is
Anthropic supposed to enforce this rule?
How are they supposed to know whether
someone's a citizen or a non-citizen
when they're just using the API? They're
going to have to do things like know
your customer, which is what financial
institutions have to do. They basically
have to gather all of this information
about their customers to help report on
different financial crimes. Now, are AI
companies going to have to do that? The
net effect of this order is we must
abruptly disable Fable 5 and Mythos 5.
Within a minute of this tweet dropping,
Fable 5 and Mythos 5 stopped working. I
literally had 10 different agents
running on Fable 5 right when this tweet
went out and they all just stopped. But
let me tell you something. This is a
self-inflicted wound on Anthropic. Now,
some of you might think that this is
actually a big marketing W. And I'm
going to get to that in a moment. But
from my perspective, this is a big
problem. Anthropic is now serving
millions of customers with Fable 5. And
all of a sudden, all of those customers
have to scramble and figure out another
model to use. But I said this is
self-inflicted. Why? It all started with
this project Glasswing. This is the
first time that we heard about Mythos.
This was a few months ago. And anthropic
in the most anthropic way said, "Hey, we
have this new training run. We have this
new incredible frontier model called
Mythos, and it is so good, we can't even
release it. It is too good at cyber
attacks, cyber defense, and you can't
use it. We can use it, by the way. You
know, we can use it. We got it. We're
trustworthy enough. We're the good guys
here. So, we're going to use it, but
we're not going to release it." Well,
actually, maybe we'll just choose a
handful of other companies that we deem
good enough to use this model, but none
of you others can use it. And this is
fear-based marketing. And because they
took this tactic of saying it's too
dangerous to release, everybody wanted
to use it. Everybody was talking about
it. And then just before they talked
about Project Glass Wing, they also had
their little scuffle with the Department
of War. Anthropic put a line in the sand
saying, "No, the Department of War
cannot use our models for fully
autonomous weapons and to do mass
surveillance on US citizens." And the
Department of War said, "No, we don't
want you to tell us how to use your
models. We're going to follow the letter
of the law." And so the government
deemed anthropic a supply chain risk.
This was a very big deal. The first time
a US company had been deemed a supply
chain risk. So all of this was happening
and then fast forward to just last week,
Anthropic launches Fable 5, which is
basically just mythos, but with a
classification model on top that
prevents people from asking about cyber
security questions, bio questions,
nuclear questions. It kind of is a
neutered version of Mythos. It's still
incredibly powerful. Don't get me wrong,
it's the best model I've ever used, but
again, this is more of that fear-based
marketing. It's, hey, we have this
mythos version we can't give you, but we
we'll give you this one over here. And
then that brings us to now the US
government told anthropic non- US
citizens can't use it. Of course, if
they talk up how dangerous this model
is, how only they are good enough to use
it and good enough to deem others who
can use it, of course the government is
going to look at it and say, "Well,
maybe non- US citizens shouldn't use
it." Okay, and here is where the story
gets wild. It turns out the government
decided to make this decision because
they found out that Fable can be
jailbroken, which is kind of like
finding out the sky is blue because
every single model ever can be
jailbroken. Obviously, the rate of being
able to jailbreak these models continues
to decline, but they are humanlike in
that sense. They can be convinced to say
things that they shouldn't. That is the
nature of artificial intelligence in its
current form. That's why I was a little
bit surprised to see that the government
found out that these models are
jailbreakable because all models are
jailbreakable. And there's nothing
different about Mythos. There's nothing
different about Fable. But what's crazy
is that the government did find out. And
apparently it was an Amazon employee who
told them. Listen to this. This is from
the Wall Street Journal. The jailbreak
research in question was done by
researchers at Amazon who used a series
of prompts to get Anthropic's model to
provide them with information about a
handful of security vulnerabilities,
said chief executive with the cyber
security firm Luda Security. Anthropic
shared a copy of the report with her.
she said. And breaking just as of a few
minutes ago, the information reports
that the Amazon CEO himself, Andy Jasse,
was amongst the tech leaders to push the
Trump administration to consider the
severe security risks of Mythos and
Fable. So, according to the information,
Amazon CEO Andy Jasse was among the tech
leaders who raised concerns to senior
Trump administration officials this week
about security risks in Anthropic's most
advanced models. According to two people
familiar with conversations, the calls
between the head of Amazon, one of
Anthropic's biggest investors and
vendors and the officials in the last
few days helped set in motion the Trump
administration's new export restrictions
on Anthropics Claude Mythos 5 and Fable
5 models late Friday night. This is
unbelievable.
So, has nobody heard of Ply the
Prompter? I mean, he literally jailbroke
it within hours of the model being
released. Here it is. Ply the Liberator
jailbreak alert. Fable 5 liberated. I
mean, this is literally what he does. He
jailbreaks every single model that comes
out within hours of it and generally
within minutes. All right, now let me go
through the full response blog post from
Anthropic about the government banning
non- US citizens from using these
models. So, one, they received the
directive from the government at 5:21
p.m. Eastern. So within 3 hours of
receiving that directive, they shut down
the model, which is kind of insane to
think about. Imagine all of the
companies that are so dependent on the
model and they just flip a switch and
that's it. They no longer have access.
The letter did not provide specific
details of its national security
concern. Well, it's possible that these
things can be jailbroken. You told us
how dangerous they are. So why would we
want foreign nationals using it? And
they told him, listen to this. The
government believes it has become aware
The government believes it has become
aware of a method of bypassing or
jailbreaking Fable 5. We reviewed the
demonstration of this specific technique
being used to identify a small number of
previously known minor vulnerabilities.
These vulnerabilities all appear
relatively simple and we have found that
other publicly available models are able
to discover them as well without
requiring a bypass. So there's a few
things here. One, again, all models are
vulnerable to jailbreaking. There's no
preventing it. There's just minimizing
it. Two, it's fairly straightforward to
get the models to talk about bioweapons,
to talk about nuclear reactors, to talk
about things that they really shouldn't.
And that kind of information is
generally available online anyways. But
where it actually does become dangerous
is when the model is so good at cyber
capabilities that it's able to discover
vulnerabilities in software that nobody
else knows about. But here's the thing,
Mythos Fable, they're not that much
better than GPT 5.5 at doing so. But of
course, again, the self-inflicted nature
of this wound for anthropic, all of the
fear-mongering that they have done
around how dangerous mythos can be in
the wrong hands, they are getting a
taste of their own medicine now. And
guess who's not? Open AI. Open AAI is
still serving a model that is nearly as
good. And I guarantee GPT 5.6 is going
to be even better at these types of
capabilities. and they're going to be
jailbreakable just like every other
model on the planet. So, here's some
other information that we found out from
this blog post. Obviously, Anthropic
have instituted strong safeguards that
greatly reduce the likelihood that Fable
is misused. However, it's not perfect.
It can never be perfect. That is the
nature of these models. In the weeks
leading up to the launch of Fable,
Anthropic worked with the US government,
the UK, AISI, multiple private
thirdparty organizations, and internal
teams to red team Fable safeguards for
thousands of hours in total. I wonder if
they worked with Ply. I don't think they
did, and they really should have because
he can jailbreak any of these models.
There is no preventing Ply from plying.
And these tests show that fable
safeguards are substantially more
effective than those of any previously
deployed model. But here's the thing. If
the capabilities of this model are so
much better than every other model, that
negates the fact that the safeguards are
also better. It only takes one time to
get a critical vulnerability out of
Fable to have massive damage on the
United States. No testers have yet been
able to find a universal jailbreak,
which means a single jailbreak that just
works every single time. That doesn't
exist, and that's okay. It's not really
necessary to exist. Again, you only
really need to get it to reveal
sensitive information once. Now, a lot
of people are also saying that this is a
huge W in terms of marketing. And yeah,
I guess in a way it is. A lot of people
are going to read about this. In fact,
this post by Ananthropic already has 66
million views in less than 12 hours. So,
here's Ryan Peterson, the CEO of
Flexport. Such great marketing reminds
me of when this shoe company got the NBA
to ban their shoes for making you jump
too high. That's exactly what this is,
right? A lot of people are going to find
out about it. A lot of people are going
to say, "Wow, it was such a good AI
model that the government had to ban it.
I got to try that out. Why would I use
OpenAI as non-banned models? I mean,
they can't be as good. They're not
banned. And I actually think that makes
a lot of sense. But I do believe the
disruption to Anthropic's business is
going to be far worse than any marketing
they receive. Remember, Anthropic just
confidentially submitted their S1,
basically setting themselves up to go
public. This is almost certainly going
to delay that because now they are not
selling a product. They are now selling
a national security threat. This is much
different. This changes the calculus
completely. And of course, the SEC is a
government organization, so they have to
take this into consideration. Investors
have to take this into consideration.
So, here's the Department of War's CIO,
Chief Information Officer, Kristen
Davies. We fully support POTUS and the
Secretary of War and prioritizing
national security and the security of
our war fighters, DIIB partners,
critical infrastructure, international
parties, and allies. Here's the most
important part. Some things are simply
more important than revenue cycles,
clickbait, and pre-IPO valuation. She is
specifically saying anthropic, you did
this to yourself. By the way, I don't
necessarily agree with the ban. Just to
be clear about that, I think finding a
very narrow vulnerability, a very narrow
jailbreak in these models is not enough
to warrant banning them. And also the
broad brush in which they did it. any
non- US citizen can't use it. There is
truly no effective way to enforce that.
So, what happens next? Well, almost
certainly their IPO is going to be
pushed back. What we're probably going
to see is in the next 1 to two weeks,
they're going to work out a deal with
the government and we're going to get
Fable 5 back. I'm willing to bet on
that. This is the tried andrue Trump
administration playbook. Make some
extreme decision, then negotiate and
come back somewhere in the middle.
That's what they do. They might require
Anthropic to more aggressively collect
information about their customers, which
would be a major pain for Anthropic. But
at the same time, Anthropic might
actually be down with it because that's
easy for them to do when they're a
trillion dollar company. They have all
the funding in the world. They have a
massive employee base, but that's
actually going to hurt startups looking
to compete with them in the future.
That's also known as regulatory capture.
So maybe Anthropic and Daario are
playing a little bit of 4D chess here
and they kind of knew the government was
going to do this and they knew that they
were going to tighten restrictions. In
fact, Anthropic is kind of known for
being super aggressive with regulatory
capture. In fact, just a couple days
ago, Daario released an essay called
Policy on the AI Exponential, basically
saying the government is not keeping up
with how fast AI is evolving. and they
laid out all of these regulatory
frameworks that they thought the US
government should employ to safeguard
against AI development and this is
regulatory capture. They literally said,
"Hey, do this to us." And the government
was like, "All right, we'll do it." And
then and then Daario is, "Whoa, whoa,
what happened there? We don't agree with
this." And so this actually marks an
important point in the timeline of
artificial intelligence. We are now at
the point at which the government and
the general population looks at these
models as national security threats, not
as tools. This is a really bad thing
because now every model after this is
going to be viewed through the same
lens. How is this going to hurt the US?
How is it going to hurt our allies? Not
how is this going to help humanity? How
is it going to increase productivity,
increase GDP, increase the wealth of the
world? The conversation was already
extremely negative. The perception of AI
was already extremely negative,
especially in the United States. And
this makes things so much worse. Now,
I've made multiple videos about
anthropics fear-based marketing. Here's
one right here you should check out
because it's extremely relevant to this
topic.