Even Good News Takes Months

Nothing in this program should be

considered investment advice. It is for

educational purposes only. Please hit

pause and read this disclaimer in full.

Somebody came out Bank of America or

others said that even if we open the

straight at this point, we're early to

mid 2027 before we're back to, you know,

kind of recovered from the shutdown.

Hello everyone and welcome to this

episode of Finance. I'm your host Chris

Martinson and we have so much to talk

about today and can't wait to get into

it with Paul Ker of Kiker Wealth of

Management. Hey Paul, how are you today?

>> I'm good Chris. Good to see you.

>> Well, um let's dive right in and and

take a look. You know, the Iran war is

is heating back up. uh lots to discuss

and I don't really want to just make

this war coverage but this has a lot of

impact on the markets obviously and I

think this is going to have

extraordinary as yet not yet priced in

impacts on the markets obviously energy

but everything is a derivative of energy

and so Paul um just I'm going to maybe

about a minute minute and a half this is

on Fox News just from this morning uh

the United States lost an Apache

helicopter crazy story about that but

then let's hear the rest of this And I

just got off the phone with President

Trump and he gave Fox News some brand

new details on what happened with that

Apache helicopter that went down earlier

this week and provided his thinking on

where things stand with the negotiation.

I want to start with a story the

president told me new details about the

downing of this US Army Apache

helicopter. President Trump tells Fox

News that the Iranian drone lodged in

between the two pilots in this

helicopter. They were flying very low

and at that point the drone didn't

explode as it had intended to. And so

these pilots were trying to take down

the helicopter with the drone lodged

into this into this gunship without it

exploding. And at any moment it could

have exploded, the president told me.

And he said it was on fire. There was a

lot of heat inside the cockpit of this

helicopter. And ultimately these two

pilots were able to take it down into

the sea where ultimately they were

rescued for the first time in US

military history by an unmanned sea

drone. Now, President Trump also talked

about

>> Okay, before we move on,

kind of a wild story, huh?

>> Yeah, I was just saying I didn't realize

all of those details. I'd not heard that

clip. I was like, I got

>> I haven't either. But remember, so that

whole, you know, we had to rescue our

pilot thing that mostly turned out to be

a cover story for other things. So I

don't know what to believe anymore at

this point. But if that's a true story,

wow, very thankful because otherwise

those pilots and that helicopter would

have been vaporized. The the Shahed

drone carries a 40 to a 60 kg warhead.

Um,

>> wow.

>> Depending. So, but it's on fire. So

crazy story. Crashes in, doesn't

explode. It's on fire. They bring it

down. But Trump is promising now we

we're going to have to retaliate for

this. Now,

there was also exchanges recently of um

we bombed some of their sites and they

slobbed a few more missiles over. We

said we knocked them all down. Videos

come out that maybe that's not also

entirely accurate. Uh etc., etc. So,

there's been lots of nonCC fiery things

going on over this past week. And now it

feels like to me it's it's we're getting

to that next level where we're about to

cross a line. And

it's in that context that let's hear

what Trump says next

>> about the US strikes last night against

Iranian radar systems and air defense

sites. He said the Iranians had tried to

rebuild during the ceasefire their

defensive capabilities, but they were

unable to stop these US strikes

overnight and they were hammered by US

fighter jets. Now, interestingly,

President Trump told me that he is

getting close to ordering new strikes

against Iranian power plants and

bridges,

civilian infrastructure. Um,

so this that that's an escalation. If we

go into the next escalation on all of

this, Paul, buckle up. Um, we're the

whole thing is about to turn into a

giant global catastrophe. I nobody can

really predict how that's going to turn

out, but I can't see how that's positive

for anybody, let alone the US markets.

>> No, I don't see how what today was it

this morning they came out and they hit

some water storage tanks. I mean, you're

hitting the infrastructure that of the

populace.

>> Is the military targets that hard to

hit? But either way, a continued

escalation of this, you know, markets

already seem to be having issues with

the AI trade and the sell-off that took

place on Friday. This volatility is

starting to enter. It may be a big shock

for the markets. It should be. It should

be if it accelerates.

>> Well, it should be. And and let's look

again. I can't trust anything,

especially um certain statements by a

certain president because they've so

many of them have proven to be say false

so far. But he just tweeted out this

morning on this is uh Wednesday the 10th

of June at the time of this recording.

He said, quote, "Iran's military is a

complete and total mess. Much of it like

their navy and air force doesn't even

exist anymore, although they do seem to

be able to hit things. Um, they have

been completely defeated, which is weird

because they keep shooting back. Um, all

talk, no action. He says, "Bully of the

Middle East is DE A, all caps, dead.

Quote, they've taken too long to

negotiate a deal that would have been

great for them. Now they will have to

pay the price." Three exclamation

points. President Donald J. Trump. End

quote. Um, listen, it could just be

bluster. But this whole idea that

they've crossed a line, it's too far.

They're going to have to pay a price. We

don't know what that price is. And um

the reason that's so troubling, Paul, is

that obviously Iran is not completely

defanged. The straight of Hermuz is

objectively still closed. I've got some

data on that in just a second. And they

are still shooting missiles back. So

they are not completely dead. Okay.

Problem. Iran has always promised and

they just came out this morning um uh

sorry, a couple days ago, and they said

Iranian officials warn again. And this

is a they've said this many times that

if attacks on energy infrastructure

continue, Iran's armed forces will

target all oil and gas facilities linked

to Israel, the US, and their allies. So

that would be Saudi Arabia, Kuwait,

Oman, etc. and so forth. Energy assets

in the region with American or Israeli

ownership are now considered legitimate

targets. End quote.

Okay. If if that happens, Paul, right

now the the straight of moves used to

have 25 million barrels of oil and oil

products coming out per day plus other

things, sulfur, ura, uh helium, all that

other stuff. But just speaking oil for a

minute and oil products, 25 million a

day that's been dialed back by about 13.

So roughly speaking, half is still

online.

What Iran has said is, hey, if you if

you escalate this, we'll take the other

half offline, right? Which means that

every countdown we have towards when are

we going to experience like massively

just price shocks, chaos, shortages that

now timeline will accelerate. It would

double. I think people need to be aware

of that.

>> Yes, they should be aware and they need

to prepare accordingly. Keep, you know,

if you have the capacity, stock up on

some extra gasoline supplies and oil. I

mean, it's just prudent at this point

because I mean, we've been told every

day that, hey, a ceasefire is coming. We

got a deal coming, but it continues to

accelerate. And if it expands into the

production capabilities and hits that

even further, even if there is a

resolution on the other side, it's going

to take a lot longer to to get back to

normal. Right. Who was it? Somebody came

out, Bank of America or others said that

even if we open the straight at this

point, we're early to mid 2027 before

we're back to, you know, kind of

recovered from the shutdown.

>> Yep. So

>> if we can even recover all the way, you

know,

>> right?

>> Even if they can recover all the way. I

mean, we don't know the damage to the

fields that have been shut down. You

know, the the pipings get paraffin

buildups. Lot lots of damage can happen

to the reservoir structure that's in the

oil fields. Obviously, they have to

repair whatever damage has happened. We

don't know how much there is because

again, we still don't have satellite

photos of the region. So

>> kind of flying blind on this, but this

is kind of the truthiest data we have,

which is, you know, official Hormuz

traffic. These are ships transiting the

straight of Hermuz. And I call it

truthist because Paul, a lot of there

there's been reports that maybe ships

are turning off their AIS tracking

systems and sneaking through and the

United States claims a lot more are

making it through. Iran says no. It but

still this is about the truthiest we've

got. Both sides are just if truth is the

first casualty of war, man, it's it's

been casualtied pretty heavily in this

one. I don't know what is, but this is

as close as I can get to the actual

truth. Then of course this back here,

this is how many you were getting of

tanker traffics or commercial trips. You

know, you were getting hundreds back

here. And by the way, this this should

go all the way up here uh just before

March up to about 130 a day. I mean,

it's just been nothing. So, I mean,

that's that's just continuing to drag on

and drag on and and and pull down our

our emergency reserves, our savings, the

oil stocks. I mean, this is just

continuing to build for, you know, a

crisis where the the market does not

seem to be pricing this in in any way

whatsoever. It's like everybody wants to

stay away from the oil trade at this

point and I guess just react and let

momentum take over when we hit that

brick wall.

>> Yeah, it's actually something really

bizarre. This is very bizarre. We're in

Bizaro world right now. first never had

an energy shock this big, but also have

never had this muted of a price signal

coming back from oil.

>> Yes.

>> Right. I hear from people, hey, Chris,

you know, gasoline prices seem to be

coming down. So, it's like, oh, and and

and that's I think what these Paul with

these these whoever is controlling the

price of oil, they do it for that

reason, right? It's to it's to it's to

make people

feel like things are better than they

are.

>> Yes. And I I read a report just talking

about the insider trading and the tweets

and all the maneuvers that had taken

place over the past several months has

just demoralized any traders that would

typically move into that area. So

they're just kind of standing back and

and refusing to maneuver in a manner

that they normally would because of that

that insider information and any tweet

catching you on the wrong side of that

trade. So it's just like everybody seems

to be sitting back and waiting. And my

concern is is if this, you know, as this

continues and reality overcomes the

deception and you can't hide the truth

anymore, you're going to see a massive

reaction within that space. So get this.

This

is I almost I have trouble forming words

because Paul, this is my this is my

space. I I I've been tracking oil for so

long and I've watched even slight supply

demand imbalances convert into very

large price swings. And now we're not

only in the largest the largest supply

issue ever. I mean, look at this. This

is OPEC. It maybe 30 million barrels a

day all the way down to, let's call it

17. So I can do the math in my head. 13

million barrels a day missing from OPEC,

which includes Saudi Arabia, Iraq,

Kuwait. Nigeria hasn't really responded

meaningfully. It's up.1, you know. Libya

hasn't gone anywhere. Um, Venezuela's

up4.

Algeria nowhere. So these are our swing

producers out here. Nigeria, Algeria,

Libya, you know, Venezuela, but OPEC

down 13. These guys up maybe a half.5,

right? So that's the data. Get this.

This is crazy. I don't know if you saw

this. Goldman Sachs put out this survey.

839

traders, these are big oil traders

talking about everything. This goes back

10 years to 2016. And down below it's

like, well, how many people are slightly

bearish in the dark blue or really

bearish in the light blue versus how

many people or traders out there are

bullish in pink but or really bullish

slightly bullish in pink but really

bullish in green. Since the start of the

war, Paul, we've had a complete collapse

in bullishness and the highest rise to

the highest level of bearishness in the

past 10 years.

>> That's astonishing to me. That's

absolutely astonishing that with the

backdrop of what's taking place that

there are that many people that are that

are bearish on oil prices, massively

more bearish right now. How do you do

that? How do you create the condition

where the sentiment among traders out

there right now is more far more bearish

than bullish, but also as bearish as

they've ever been in the last 10 years?

data obviously doesn't matter. I mean,

it just must be headline information and

truth and scared to death of of tweets

or whatever. I get not being bullish

because of every time that you go long

oil, you know, some tweet comes out of

the White House or a deal's announced,

which you know is what nearly every day

for 3 months at this point. But I don't

understand being that bearish at all

with the backdrop and the data that's

taking place.

>> Yeah. Well, you know, and my hypothesis

is that because, you know, there's

somebody has come in and started to

really like, you know, sell futures, you

know, unmas at key moments and things

like that that it's it's entirely

possible now to create a condition of of

where traders understand that when

you're up against a big force, Paul, you

just step aside, right? So maybe they're

just telling us, the big traders are

telling us that they trust that trust

that somebody is going to come in and

sell a lot of oil. You know, that that

would make me bearish, right? If I saw

somebody come in and sell the headline

stock futures, you know, on Moss all the

time, I'd go, "Oh, it's kind of a

bearish condition." I don't know. But it

doesn't comport with the data, which is

this just came out this morning. API,

which is uh the American Petroleum

Institute, they usually frontr run. They

they come out with their estimate of

what the crude draws are going to be

before the EIA, the US Energy

Information Administration. Anyway, API

reported another 17 million barrels draw

for US crude. EIA according to HFI

research is going to be close to that

figure. This would either be the third,

the fourth, or maybe the fifth largest

crude draw in history. But by the way,

they write, "We will have had the

largest, third largest, fourth largest,

and fifth largest crude draws in history

all happening inside

one month." If that is not

>> a month,

>> if that is not a big A crude draw,

that's what BAC stands for. I don't know

what else is. You know,

>> that's incredible. That really is. And

the and the fact that the market, you

know, especially oil traders are not

moving on that data right now or at

least hedging their positions. I mean,

look, it that's that's that's signs of a

either scared to death market. They're

waiting their opportunity. Maybe that's

the case. They're waiting for their

opportunity to pounce to preserve their

capital,

but it just doesn't make sense. That's

not the way the markets are designed to

work.

>> No, no. The way markets are supposed to

work, of course, is to balance supply

and demand with price. And because price

isn't moving, supply and demand are

badly out of out of alignment. So, you

find the United States is hemorrhaging.

It's seed corn. We are selling our crude

to the rest of the world. We find a lot

of it goes to Europe. A lot of it's

going to Asia, to Japan in particular,

but we're selling it, you know, and

we're going to need that. But this could

all come to a a head soon. And everybody

wonders when because according

to the schedule that's out there right

now, these are global strategic stock

drawdowns

by source. And so here we're we're

really just looking at the US, Japan,

South Korea, UK, Spain, Hungary, India,

China's not in here, right? Um but it at

the end of June, they're going to we're

going to be going collectively across

all these countries from 76 million

barrels um coming out per month down to

22. Now, they could always decide to

release more, you know, eat further into

the seed corn, but that means that, you

know, here we are, it's June 10th and

things are going to change. We don't

have many more months. Remember last

time we talked about how Trump said,

"Oh, we think we could open the straight

by Labor Day, which that would be

September 7th, right?"

>> You know, whatever. Whether you believe

that uh sort of thing or not, he was

just speaking off the cuff.

June, July, August, Paul, it it's

coming. Like this is heating up big time

right now.

>> Right into the to the highest usage and

driving season and gas draws in into end

of July. Right into that. So we're we're

on a collision course at this point.

>> We are. And and if we do collide, what

we're going to see is is, you know, gas

prices, diesel prices, oil prices just

really have to shoot the moon in order

to begin to balance out supply and

demand, you know, and um but just to

just to put it in context, this is US

crude oil exports. I think Trump just

came out and said, "Oh, you know, we had

this great trade balance report because

it had narrowed somewhat." And the

reason it narrowed the reason that we

have so much uh you know of a better

trade balance is because we're exporting

basically another 9 billion barrel

billion dollars right of of crude right

that helps shrink the the supply a

little bit. So 9 billion in a month can

make a pretty big dent in in your uh

trade balance. So we're selling it we're

selling it to the rest of the world but

we're also selling it at what I consider

to be buyer sale prices.

>> Yes. Yes. especially with the backdrop

of what's taking place and a lot of

that's coming out of our strategic

petroleum reserves, right? So that's

like taking your savings that you have

for your own home and to protect

yourself and just giving it to other

people when you know that there's an

issue coming. Well, what is the data

telling us at this point? Here we are is

oil inventories. So this is right here

is US petroleum inventories in millions

of barrels. This is just crude. Just

crude. But that includes commercial plus

the strategic petroleum reserve or SPR.

Commercial plus SPR. Those are our two

that that's what we have in reserve. You

see here on the red line, we are now

officially at the lowest point we've

been. This is 16 years of data. Goes

from 2010 to 2026.

Never been lower. And heading down and

heading down quickly because the price

is too low. So we're selling lots of it

um at that price. And here you can just

see the commercial stocks of crude are

are kind of in the middle of that range.

So nothing too dangerous there yet. When

commercial breaks down, that's when

things really get hairy cuz the

refineries don't mess around. Like if

they like if you need to keep that big

giant multi-billion dollar, you know,

refinery operation running, Paul, and

you're getting a little low, you pay

what you pay to make sure your tanks are

full compared to the next guy.

>> That's right. you become price

insensitive because you've got to have

the material to put into the market.

>> Yep. And and the other thing people need

to be aware of at this point, Paul, is

that the the big the big dog that's been

balancing all of this out for the world,

and thankfully they have been doing this

is China. They've been doing the

heaviest lifting. So, here we see these

are millions of barrels per day of

Chinese crude imports. It's bumpy, you

know, as you go across uh the weeks um

and months. And so, but you can

generally see they were here about they

were about at the 11 million barrels per

day. And then what they did, Paul, was

they dropped it by about 4 million

barrels per day over the past month. So

that is a huge decline. If China

suddenly returns and says we need to get

back to importing 11 million barrels a

day, that'll put an extra 4 million

barrels per day of demand on the global

the the global floating inventory that's

being competed for. And that's going to

make prices go up a lot uh all of a

sudden.

>> Yes.

>> So thankfully China hasn't been

importing a lot, but if they do, it'll

create that sort of supply and price

shock at that point in time.

>> Mhm.

>> And we're just headed straight towards

it. So that's why we opened with Trump

saying, "Oh, I don't know. Maybe we'll

bomb them, you know, more." That's we

don't need that as a globe right now. We

need the straight reopened. We need to

normalize relations. We need to get

these things moving again. Because the

prediction, Paul, is that if we sail

into this, if we just sail straight into

$200, $300 oil, whatever it spikes into,

it's going to be a an economic

crisis and maybe a fiscal financial

crisis and maybe even a monetary crisis

depending on how it'll be crisis across

the globe.

>> Yeah, absolutely. And and my question is

is still what is plan B, right? So, is

plan B lockdowns and rationing? Um, you

know,

prices go higher and you have a

combination of lockdown, but I mean

that's going to be terrible for

everything from an equity standpoint. It

should be good for everything from

energy to commodities and especially

agriculture and good in prices rising

but not good in the average American

citizen that's going to have dramatic

inflationary increases when we already

had the highest inflationary number come

out today that we've seen in quite some

time. So, I mean there's no easy

resolution to this at all. Well, what

gets me, Paul, is it it looks like we're

just we're doing it like we're just

going to sail at full speed into this

crisis and you can see it coming and I

can see it coming and everybody watching

this, we can all see it coming, right?

Cuz we're failing at the most basic

thing, which is allowing prices to rise

to bring demand back down into alignment

with supply.

We're just avoiding that reality for

whatever reason, political,

geopolitical, whatever the reason is,

but it's happening. So, we all know that

there's going to be that sudden spike

that to to get all that back in

alignment. And this is why I think Paul,

you know, the the whole idea of passive

investing, right, where you know, just

and I get it. It works for long periods

of time. All right. Oh, I just take 3%

my company matches it goes into my 401k

that just dumps into the indexes, you

know, at the first of the month once a

month. That makes sense for a long time.

But now we're in this new regime, right?

where uhoh, you know, what happens if X,

Y, and Z. So when you see oil price

spike, you know, happens, it's going to

slam into whole sections of the economy.

It just will. And so, yeah, that's where

you don't want to just sort of like sort

of passively like, you know, invested in

the whole thing. This is where you Yeah.

Maybe a little bit tactical. It's

there's always a bull market somewhere,

right?

>> Oh, there's always a bull market

somewhere. And when you get these

distortions that are taking place where

so much money is going into technology

into AI and there's so much euphoria

around it, you know, Ecclesiastes says

there's nothing new under the sun. What

has been will be again. That continues.

Solomon was the wisest person to

consider to ever live. You're at a point

now where we have been warned. Okay?

We've been warned. There's enough

information out there to tell you that

passive is not the way to to continue to

operate in this environment. It it had

its day in the sun, but now it's time to

be adaptive. It's time to look for

opportunity. But that's hard for a lot

of people, Chris, because it takes

discipline. It takes patience. And most

people are not used to walking the path

less traveled now. And that's something

that you have to do. Humans feel good in

comfort in that herd.

But we're to a point now where it makes

sense to walk that path less traveled,

to be a little bit more tactical. I feel

much more comfortable being passive with

certain investments in the right place.

I, you know, look at the data, have your

exposure to commodities and oil. Don't

be too cute about managing that risk.

Embrace that volatility. Be a little

passive in those areas that are are

undervalued, but you have to be tactical

in rebalancing that portfolio to take

advantage of that uh uh opportunity.

Otherwise, if you're just passive in the

S&P 500 index, you're so underweighted,

all of the categories that are

undervalued right now that should be the

beneficiaries going forward that what

takes place on the other side of the

portfolio is going to do enough damage

to where you don't even get to

participate on that side. So I do

believe tactical allocation, tactical

adaptation and passive is a we are at a

point where the weight of the

information says you've got to set that

on the shelf and the time for it has

come. it has passed. And for those that

are fortunate enough to make that

adaptation at this point in time, they

were able to reap all the benefits of

that and have the opportunity to move

now into something that's going to be a

little bit more volatile, but it's a

much wiser path in the days ahead,

especially now that that the truth is is

not something that's loved by our

leader. They either think we're too

stupid to uh to accept reality, like you

can't handle reality kind of thing. So,

we're going to tell you what you want to

hear. But the problem is that's setting

us up for major impact at a time where

the average investor is far overweight

equities than what they've been at any

other time in the past.

>> I mean, I I think this is an important

conversation because, you know,

sometimes um I've had people who

misinterpret me a bit and they're like,

"Oh, you seem bearish or permanently

bearish." I'm like, "No, no, no, no. I'm

invested." Um, I'm just I just I'm I'm a

contrarian, you know, maybe that seems

bearish to people, but only because

we've been in this printing universe for

like decades now at this point in time

where where Yep. It's, you know, the

Fed's just printed and printed and

printed. I think they're at the end of

their rope on this one, Paul, because as

we've discussed in the past, the Fed's

ability to print is is listen, if you're

in a human created crisis, your CDO,

your CLLO paper is blowing up. You know,

you have a derivative crisis. Ah, that's

all abstract human stuff, you know. Go

ahead, print your way through that. It

has consequences. You still have to deal

with wealth gaps and, you know, assets

that are too expensive for the next

generation to participate in. All all

reason good critiques, but this time,

Paul, this is molecules, right? You

know, we see here that that the United

States American crude and fuel exports

in May were more than 2 million barrels

a day higher than they've ever been.

So, uh, unbelievable. We are just we're

exporting this stuff. Well, this has a

this there's only so much of this you

can do and then you can't do it,

>> right?

>> And then that's what creates the forcing

function for the Fed because there's

nothing they can do about this. You

can't print molecules. As Jeff Curry

says, you can't do it. You know, what do

you do?

>> Right.

>> Well, you have to live with the

consequences of your bad decisions up to

that point. And and that's that's where

I think Yeah. As a contrarian, I see

opportunity in that, but I also see a

lot of risks.

>> Yes. Yes. There's huge Well, you can

print money into a deflationary vacuum,

right? When capital's being destro

destroyed in a credit crisis and and

money is being lost, you can print money

into that, but you can't print money

into a a shortage of something that has

to be mined, produced, or or pulled out

of the ground, right? Especially in this

just in time inventory environment.

>> Yep. And a lot of times, Chris, you

know, I think people hear what they want

to hear. Okay? So, so people will say,

"Oh, you're bearish all the time."

That's not true. I know you. We're all

looking for opportunity from a tactical

investment standpoint. There's always a

bull market somewhere. Just because

we're talking about the warnings that

are there, doesn't mean that we're

absolutely bearish on everything.

There's unbelievable opportunities out

there right now as this capital

rebalances and reality comes home to

roost. Mhm.

>> But too many times people don't take the

opportunity to ask questions. Well,

where do you see opportunity? What

happens is you give them the

information. They see that and then it

scares them. So, their immediate

reaction is, "Oh, you're just

permanently bearish." And they'll say,

"Oh, well, you've warned us about this

for some time, but it hasn't come to

fruition yet." Well, warning somebody

well ahead of time gives them a chance

to to digest the information, to look at

their situation, search the truth for

themselves, and then find that path less

traveled. So, it is very important to

warn people about this. And when

somebody just says a blanket, oh, you're

bearish all the time, and you know, you

want the markets to go down, that's

that's not a very strong intellectual

argument. That's more of a defensive

nature from the individual because they

don't want to they just don't want to

embrace the courage to see the reality

of the data that you're sharing because

the data is the data, right? I mean, it

it it's just math and that math is going

to cause some problems in the future and

we're far enough into this that even if

we get a resolution today, it's going to

take a long time for this to resolve

itself and we're going to have higher

prices uh for quite some time. And if it

continues now, this is going to be a

major lifestyle shock to those people

that have refused to to embrace the

courage to see the truth and the reality

of what's coming. It's easy to see at

this point, but those same people are

going to say, "Well, nobody could have

seen this coming." That's not true.

You're warning people clearly with the

data that's there, and it's just a

matter of time at this point,

unfortunately. But again, you know,

doing nothing is a decision at this

point in time. So, I get it, Paul. Like,

you know, when we were discussing the

great taking, I had a lot of people do

this on the whole thing. They're like, I

I just can't I I just can't even look at

that. I don't know what to do with it.

So, I'm not really going to do anything

with it. Which it's a decision of a

sort. I mean, if you're in a valley and

an avalanche is coming down the hill,

standing there and doing nothing is a

decision, you know,

>> right?

>> That

>> it is

>> probably has consequences at some point,

you know? So I I think this is a time

for for people to be acutely aware of

what the risks are. Understand where we

are in the cycles because all things

come and go. You mentioned Ecclesiastes

before. All things in in time, right?

Turn turn. So guess what? We just came

through a big long period of money

printing and we could print more and we

can print more. Over your shoulder is a

history of bubbles. I believe that when

humans look back on this period, they're

going to say, "How did they get that

wrong again?" We'll never be that stupid

again. But they will cuz we're humans.

Turn. turn turn and but we're in a

massive bubble and the bubble is sort of

has its roots in this conceit that this

time is different because we've got the

right tools. So we'll just we'll put

quantitative easing in we'll do yield

curve control we'll we'll do reserve uh

balance management whatever you want to

term it right tarp tal like ah we're

trying all these things Paul to do one

thing which is avoid reality which is oh

you can't live beyond your means forever

sooner or later you got to tighten your

belt or you have to be willing to risk

the complete catastrophe of your

currency system that is a a a a

paraphrase raising of that very famous

fund Ludick von Visa's quote right there

is no means of avoiding the consequences

of a credit bubble your choices are

voluntarily abandon it

>> or risk a catastrophe or collapse of the

currency system involved that's it tend

to believe that's true

>> so

>> I do too I mean and and we've seen it

there's historical precedent from it but

what most people don't understand is if

we have a collapse of our currency

system that's going to be an equal

opportunity bringinger of misery to all

except for the top 1%. And before it's

over, it's going to impact them at some

point as well. But that is far worse for

the average individual, especially those

that are struggling to make ends meet

already with inflationary pressures

wearing into their lifestyle. It's just

going to be exacerbated, magnified times

10. So the problem is the longer we kick

this can down the road, the worse the

consequences are. And what for

short-term political gain? Are we that

shortsighted in our country now that

hey, you know, let's let's just try to

kick this can down the road and find

somebody else to blame it on. Our

leaders are supposed to be fiduciaries

for the people. Give us the truth, give

us the information to be able to make

wise and prudent decisions for our

families, for our citizenry, for our

nation. And and sometimes that means you

got to deliver some bad news. And the

markets may not be something that you

can brag about as the president. I mean,

it's amazing how obsessed the president

is with the market. I mean,

>> you know, I mean, we get that tweet last

Friday and the market selloff after the

jobs report was good and, you know, he

just clearly doesn't understand why the

market sells off, you know, in spite of

good numbers. That just tells you how

obsessed he is with the markets at this

point.

>> Well, and it also exposes his weakness

or our weakness, the Achilles heel,

right? So if you don't want your

adversaries like China to know how to

how to how to really get under your

skin.

>> Yes.

>> Well, yes.

>> You know, apparently you do it in the

markets. So yeah. Well, um Paul, let's

leave that there. And for anybody who

wants to talk with Paul and his amazing

team about how to pursue a a wise and

prudent course of action, it begins by

going to peakfinaniallinvesting.com.

You fill out a simple form and within 48

business hours, somebody from Paul's

team gets a hold of you and you begin

the process, which is three phone calls.

And the first one will be a get to know

you orientation call. The second one

would be a planning call. And then a

final call, if it goes that far, would

be a recommendations call that's

tailored to you very, very specifically,

obviously. So that's the process. And

again, if you want to start that up,

peakfinaniallinvesting.com.

And everybody who goes through it so

far, everybody Paul has told me, "Wow,

that was worthwhile."

>> The most fun part to me are the ones

that I have to really convince that the

planning meeting is something that's

beneficial for them. Those are the ones

that that seem to be the most impacted

and the most pleased by the results and

the information that we were able to

give them. And it just helps us to

demonstrate for individuals, hey, these

are your risks. These are these are the

things that I have to deal with in the

recommendation for you. And then that

sets the stage for the recommendation so

that they know that it's appropriate for

them because I am a fiduciary in the

advice that I give to individuals to

help them manage their resources

prudently.

>> All right. Well, with that, thank you

very much for listening to this uh

segment of FinanceU and um Paul, thanks

for your time.

>> It's my honor.